March 24, 2025
By Emily Senkosky
Time is running out to save Pacific Northwest wild salmon and steelhead, but studies conducted by tribes and the states of Washington and Oregon are providing data needed to preserve them and the ecosystems and economies that depend on them.
In February 2024, a joint agreement between Pacific Northwest tribes and the Biden administration commenced a new approach to recovering salmon and steelhead in the Columbia River Basin. Parties agreed to consider breaching the four lower Snake River Dams, which have long been contentious for their part in decimating fish populations. To remove the dams, which provide energy, irrigation and transportation routes, data on the feasibility of replacing their infrastructure was needed.
The Washington Department of Ecology and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation conducted the first study, which showed that the removal of the lower Snake River Dams would not affect the river's capacity to supply water for irrigation or for municipal and industrial purposes.
By providing three options for service replacement, the research was meant to give the public and decision makers baseline data that could inform future actions – with water service replacement estimated to cost between $1.7 and $3.5 billion. According to Kayeloni Scott, executive director of the Columbia and Snake River Campaign, the studies were geared at finding out if dam removal was even possible.
“These pieces of information are critical for moving forward,” said Scott. “The studies were meant to find out what would need to be replaced, what actions would need to be taken, and what it would cost.”
Regarding energy replacement, several studies have indicated that energy needs in the Pacific Northwest are projected to nearly double by 2050. The lower Snake River Dams are “run of the river” dams, meaning they are entirely dependent on snowpack and its rate of runoff. This type of energy generation makes them relatively unreliable compared to some other dams in the federal Columbia River system – especially in recent years with decreasing snowpack.
While the Snake River Dams have a collective generating capacity of 3,033 megawatts, their average yearly output is around a third of that at around 1,075 average megawatts. According to actual generation data from 2010-2015, the average output for the dams was even lower, at 930 megawatts of power per year.
“The lower Snake River dams are outdated structures that will require significant funding to update and maintain. We have an opportunity to invest in the region through options that not only consider the needs of salmon, but also stakeholders,” said Scott.
The second study by the Washington State Department of Transportation is multi-phased and aimed at evaluating the transportation impacts of dam removal. The first phase gathered data on current freight volumes and transportation networks to develop a predictive model for future movement and transport needs. A second phase, that began in 2025, will analyze safety and broader impacts, incorporating input from technical and community advisory committees.
The ongoing research aims to fill critical knowledge gaps left by previous federal reports, ensuring policymakers can address the logistical challenges that could come up without the Snake River Dams in place.
Sustaining salmon
For decades, the return of salmon and steelhead to the Snake River Basin has been shifting away from wild-origin and to a great extent to hatchery-origin fish. According to Jay Hesse, fish biologist for the Nez Perce Tribe, over half of the native populations of spring and summer Chinook salmon are now gone. The 32 native populations remaining are in dire condition and listed as an endangered species. Replenishing these fish to the federal standard established by the Endangered Species Act is a much lower bar than getting the fish back to a “healthy and harvestable” status.
“The (federal) regulations are a floor for fish performance within the hydro system,” said Hesse.
The new NOAA report, in combination with efforts by Columbia Basin tribes and state fish managers, is helping to communicate how well fish populations, or stocks, are doing and what types of changes are needed for their protection. If a salmon or steelhead population has had 50 or fewer wild fish on an annual basis for four consecutive years, they have reached what is known as a Quasi Extinction Threshold, which is an indicator that the stock is headed toward extinction.
“We are in dire straits. Nearly half of the spring and summer Chinook populations are at the (threshold) level,” said Hesse.
Metrics showed that 1.9 million salmon passed through the Bonneville Dam in 2024, as compared to historical estimates of 8-16 million. According to Hesse, achieving healthy and abundant management goals will require discourse that considers fish biology, environmental habitat, and human behavior.
“For Snake Basin stocks, the heart of the resolution is to breach the four lower Snake River dams while taking care of the communities and services that those dams provide,” said Hesse.
Powering progress
The new studies are helping to move toward tangible outcomes, but spending freezes and job removals are directly affecting tribes’ commitments as set forth in the Resilient Columbia Basin Agreement – a manifesto based on the priorities outlined in the joint agreement with the Biden administration.
Despite these challenges, the new studies will help lay the groundwork for a path forward. Resilient Columbia Basin Agreement advocates are taking a grassroots approach by participating in town hall meetings and prioritizing direct engagement with stakeholders to hear the concerns of potentially impacted communities. According to Scott, people have been mostly receptive and positive, with their main concerns being for agriculture and reliable, affordable energy.
All of this work has led to an updated environmental impact statement that incorporates new information and circumstances into the 2020 environmental impact statement of the dams. Public meetings for this supplementary statement are scheduled for the week of April 7th, and a public comment period is open now through May 9th. For tribes of the Columbia River Basin, this progress has been a long time coming and is something that could have profound ripples.
“It’s deeper than salmon going extinct,” said Scott. “For tribal members, the survival of the species is the survival of our way of life.”
ICT: New studies may lead to removal of Snake River dams
